Reality, Economics and Politics...right down to the basics. I'm a firm believer in independant thought, so if what I say conflicts with what you believe, don't believe what I post. Always research the both sides of the story for yourself and then come to your own conclusion.
Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Democrats played Politics with Unemployment...but GOP still to blame?
Ok people, you got caught up in your emotions and the Democrats played on that....for over a month now. If they were serious about the deficit, this would have been paid for and voted on from the beginning but they gambled on the desperation of millions of Americans out of work in the name of Politics.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Obama Blames GOP for upholding Congressional Law (UPDATE: 60 Votes Found)
Showing a lack of knowledge about the concept of governance, the Democrats counter the GOP's call to pay for unemployment by comparing the times when the GOP gave tax credits to businesses. So let's straighten this out now.
The government gets funded by two sources: loans from other nations and taxes (people and Corporations). Printing money is another way of writing an I.O.U. of which will become some sort of tax in the future.
Banks are funded by the people and backed by the Government (funded by the people and loans)
Corporations are funded by the people when you pay for products or services. (Refresher course)
Small businesses are funded by the people and banks (funded by the people and Government).
Getting the picture here? We, through the private sector, fund the economic engine that feeds the government.
Tax credits/cuts is less money being taken from the businesses or corporations and therefore are not a cost. It's a relief on the businesses that will benefit the consumers (people). This is regardless of budget concerns.
Unemployment benefits are cost regardless of the Federal Budget's status. In this case, we are in a deficit. The President signed into law PayGo (Feb 2010), where if any costs had to be added to the budget, Congress MUST find a way to pay for it. It was to show how responsible the Democrats were and the seriousness about tackling the deficit. The GOP have been willing to vote for the passage of this bill and have found a way to pay for Unemployment benefits, using part of the $400+Billion of unsed Stimulus to pay for it. The Democrats are playing politics by selling the idea that the GOP hates the people, etc. while people have been cut off from their benefits in the last month. They've refused paying for the benefits, using the entitlement program to stir political anger.
This seems like a punk move to me.
Update: Republicans Snow and Collins have signed on to pass the measure, and interim Senator of WV, Goodwin will provide the final vote. Looks like it's going through (finally!!), but it's tainted with political gaming.
Labels:
Business,
Corportions,
Democrats,
Economics,
GOP,
Obama,
PayGo,
Stimulus,
Unemployment
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Keeping Up with the Unemployment Rate
Here we go..
The light blue line represents what unemployment would be had nothing been done to stimulate the economy. Notice, we stay around 9%.
The dark blue line represents what unemployment would be after the stimulus passed. You know the promise that unemployment would be under 8%, yada, yada....
We went past that percentage. The maroon dots represent the ACTUAL unemployment data, peaking above 10%. A lot of factors led to this happening. Geithner's prediction (March 2010) to Congress is that unemployment will not drop to 8% until the 4th quarter of 2012.
Just prepare. Starting next year, a range of tax cuts expire, new taxes begin and government spending increases. The IRS reported that they do not have the manpower or resources to enforce the mandate for the new Healthcare bill, new tax to pay for that (via Hotair). The President has now changed his stance on the mandate and is admitting that it's a tax. A very hostile environment for economic growth and the unemployment situation. Numbers are my thing, and I'm tired of being right
The light blue line represents what unemployment would be had nothing been done to stimulate the economy. Notice, we stay around 9%.
The dark blue line represents what unemployment would be after the stimulus passed. You know the promise that unemployment would be under 8%, yada, yada....
We went past that percentage. The maroon dots represent the ACTUAL unemployment data, peaking above 10%. A lot of factors led to this happening. Geithner's prediction (March 2010) to Congress is that unemployment will not drop to 8% until the 4th quarter of 2012.
Just prepare. Starting next year, a range of tax cuts expire, new taxes begin and government spending increases. The IRS reported that they do not have the manpower or resources to enforce the mandate for the new Healthcare bill, new tax to pay for that (via Hotair). The President has now changed his stance on the mandate and is admitting that it's a tax. A very hostile environment for economic growth and the unemployment situation. Numbers are my thing, and I'm tired of being right
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Wake Up Call of the Day
Via (Ed Morrissey; Hotair)
Ezra Klein calls this “the scariest jobs graph you’ve seen yet,” and for good reason. The center-left Brookings Institute calculated what kind of job growth it would take to reach pre-recession employment levels, and how long it would take. Brookings takes into account population growth and therefore calculates that in this month, the total employment gap has expanded to 11.2 million jobs. According to their analysis, adding jobs at a rate equal to the best average monthly rate for any one year in the past decade will mean we won’t catch up to pre-recession employment until 2022 (via Newsalert):
Looking ahead, there are several challenges to sustained job growth. The boost to economic activity from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is winding down and job losses related to temporary Census workers will continue in July. Further, the four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance have hit their highest level since March and have remained above 450,000 all year.
The “job gap” underlying these numbers is daunting. In recent months, on this blog, we described the job gap — the number of jobs it would take to return to employment levels from before the Great Recession, while also accounting for the 125,000 people who enter the labor force in a typical month. After today’s employment numbers, the job gap stands at almost 11.3 million jobs.
How long will it take to erase this gap? If future job growth continues at a rate of roughly 208,000 jobs per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year for job creation in the 2000s, it would take 136 months (more than 11 years). In a more optimistic scenario, with 321,000 jobs created per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year in the 1990s, it would take over 57 months (almost 5 years).
If we start in 2009Q4, when Obama argued that Porkulus and his other economic policies started taking effect, the rate of job creation under his policies has been … +39,000. Bear in mind that this includes the massive Census Bureau hires made by the Obama administration in 2010.
How about just the private sector? The Brookings calculation isn’t limited to the private sector, so it’s a bit like comparing apples and oranges, but few people doubt that private sector jobs have to return in force to close the jobs gap. The average monthly growth in the private sector during the entire Obama term has been -192,000, and the average growth since the beginning of 2009Q4 has been +14,000. In other words, two-thirds of the growth numbers from Porkulus come from government hiring, not private-sector growth.
How long will it take to close the employment gap with a growth rate of +14K in the private sector? It’s flat-out impossible, because we’re digging the hole deeper each month at that rate. Under the failed Keynesian policies of the Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration, 2022 looks like a pipe dream instead of a nightmare.
Ezra Klein calls this “the scariest jobs graph you’ve seen yet,” and for good reason. The center-left Brookings Institute calculated what kind of job growth it would take to reach pre-recession employment levels, and how long it would take. Brookings takes into account population growth and therefore calculates that in this month, the total employment gap has expanded to 11.2 million jobs. According to their analysis, adding jobs at a rate equal to the best average monthly rate for any one year in the past decade will mean we won’t catch up to pre-recession employment until 2022 (via Newsalert):
Looking ahead, there are several challenges to sustained job growth. The boost to economic activity from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is winding down and job losses related to temporary Census workers will continue in July. Further, the four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance have hit their highest level since March and have remained above 450,000 all year.
The “job gap” underlying these numbers is daunting. In recent months, on this blog, we described the job gap — the number of jobs it would take to return to employment levels from before the Great Recession, while also accounting for the 125,000 people who enter the labor force in a typical month. After today’s employment numbers, the job gap stands at almost 11.3 million jobs.
How long will it take to erase this gap? If future job growth continues at a rate of roughly 208,000 jobs per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year for job creation in the 2000s, it would take 136 months (more than 11 years). In a more optimistic scenario, with 321,000 jobs created per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year in the 1990s, it would take over 57 months (almost 5 years).
If we start in 2009Q4, when Obama argued that Porkulus and his other economic policies started taking effect, the rate of job creation under his policies has been … +39,000. Bear in mind that this includes the massive Census Bureau hires made by the Obama administration in 2010.
How about just the private sector? The Brookings calculation isn’t limited to the private sector, so it’s a bit like comparing apples and oranges, but few people doubt that private sector jobs have to return in force to close the jobs gap. The average monthly growth in the private sector during the entire Obama term has been -192,000, and the average growth since the beginning of 2009Q4 has been +14,000. In other words, two-thirds of the growth numbers from Porkulus come from government hiring, not private-sector growth.
How long will it take to close the employment gap with a growth rate of +14K in the private sector? It’s flat-out impossible, because we’re digging the hole deeper each month at that rate. Under the failed Keynesian policies of the Democrats in Congress and the Obama administration, 2022 looks like a pipe dream instead of a nightmare.
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